Survey of 67,000 prospective students highlights gaps between interest and enrolment for study abroad

Keystone Education Group released its annual report, The State of Student Recruitment 2026, last week. Presenting at the NAFSA conference in Orlando, Dr Mark Bennett, Keystone's Vice President of Research & Insight, shared highlights from this year's findings.

The report is based on survey findings from just over 67,000 prospective international students from 150 countries. The survey data was collected between October 2025 and April 2026, and Keystone has combined it, where appropriate, with actual search data from its student-facing course search websites.

The first thing that jumps out from the data is the difference between student interest – that is, the destinations students are most interested in – and student intent, meaning the destination where they actually go on to enrol.

For example, Keystone explains, "While the USA was our most-searched destination (19%), fewer students in our survey are selecting it as their intended study destination, a trend that has persisted for the second year running."

In other words, there is currently a significant gap between students' initial interest in the "Big Four" study destinations and their actual enrolment, and the difference between the two is primarily due to practical considerations like the student's perceptions around their chance of obtaining a study visa, relative affordability, and how safe and welcoming the destination is seen to be.

"Basically, the Big Four has a huge amount of interest and high appeal," adds Dr Bennett. "But when we move on to actual intent, we move on to practical factors. That's where the gap is."

Perhaps not surprisingly, the Keystone data also makes it clear that diversification of student interest is accelerating across a wider field of study destinations, and especially those in Europe and Asia. This is significant in part because the findings also point to students placing an increasing priority on destination choice, as opposed to first choosing a field of study or institution.

Intended programme of study remains the most important factor when students choose an option for study abroad, but 28% now say country choice is their main concern (up from 20% in 2025). Keystone explains, "For South Asian respondents specifically, country (35%) now outranks programme (31%). This is the only regional audience where we see this happen, and the one most exposed to recent visa and policy changes. This suggests that students are ensuring their chosen destinations are accessible to them before they can consider institutions or courses."

In a related finding, when asked what their biggest concerns are about study abroad students gave the greatest weight to cost and eligibility in this year's survey, echoing the responses from last year. But "political uncertainty" is the fastest-rising concern in 2026 (rated third by students after only cost and eligibility), which points to a significant element of doubt for students when considering study abroad. That is, their confidence in their ability to obtain a visa and that the rules under which they're studying will not change before or during their programme.

"Confidence is declining," says Keystone. "Students worry less about their ability to succeed than their opportunity to do so."

How do students rate destinations in that larger set?

"The Big 4 still compete on appeal, especially when considering academic reputation and subject offering," says Keystone. "But they don’t have a commanding lead. And they’re falling behind on the practical considerations that make studying abroad possible for many."

The chart below shows relative ratings given by students, for various decision factors, across the Big Four (the US, UK, Australia, and Canada), selected destinations in Europe (Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, France), and a sample of Asian destinations (Japan, China, South Korea).

Dr Bennett points out that what this data is telling us is that "Prospective students don’t think the gap between destinations is as big as we perhaps do."

Use versus trust

The survey findings also paint an interesting picture of the sources and channels that students use in their search for information about study abroad. As we see in the chart below, AI use, for example, is comparable to the percentage that say they look for information on university websites. But the trust students extend to those institutional websites considerably outstrips their confidence in the information they get via AIs.

Keystone offers this summary of the findings in this area: "The takeaway here is reassuring for institutions: even as AI and social media reshape how students search, they haven't reshaped who students believe. University websites remain the anchor of credibility, the one channel audiences approach with conviction rather than uncertainty."

"Generative and broad-search tools may dominate the discovery phase, but trust still flows to curated, human-crafted sources. The implication is clear: investing in owned channels and curated partnerships isn't just defensible, it's where decisions actually get made."

For additional background, please see:

• "New IDP research shows link between visa uncertainty and the perceived ROI of study abroad"
• "UNESCO confirms growing trend of intra-regional student mobility"
• "UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more"
• "From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen"
• "What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad"