China in 2026: Slowing outbound student mobility, accelerating inbound momentum

The number of international students studying in China is quickly catching up with the number of Chinese students enrolled abroad.

Roughly 380,000 foreign students from nearly 200 countries were in China during the 2024/25 academic year, according to a senior Chinese education official quoted in the China Daily. While this is down from nearly 500,000 before the COVID-19 pandemic, it is a huge increase (+96%) from the 255,700 low in 2021. China closed its borders for longer than any other major study abroad destination or economy during the pandemic, opening up again only in January 2023.

This steady post-pandemic increase contrasts with the -20% drop in Chinese students abroad in 2025 (570,000) compared with 2019. There is also a rising trend of Chinese foreign-educated graduates returning home for studies (535,600 in 2025, suggesting about a 90% return rate).

Part of the plan

The uptick in international students in China is intentional. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–30) includes the prioritisation of the "Study in China" brand. Speaking with the China Daily in May, Wang Daquan, a Ministry of Education spokesperson, said, "We have confidence in that goal [of China becoming one of the world's most attractive destinations for international students], and we will continue to make efforts to achieve it."

Of China’s total foreign students in 2024/25, more than half (54%) were seeking a higher education degree. More of than a third (35%) of those degree students were in postgraduate programmes.

In terms of subject preference, more than a quarter (28%) were in engineering degrees.

Asian students dominate

The Ministry of Education reports that in 2024/25, Asian students made up the largest share of foreign enrolment at 61%, while African and European students accounted for about 16% each. Country-level figures have not been released, but top markets in recent years include South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Pakistan. Emerging markets that China invests heavily in developing are in Africa and Belt and Road countries in general.

Why the decline in outbound?

Nous Group principal Matt Durnin estimates that Chinese enrolments across Australia, Canada, the UK and US have fallen by approximately -13% since their peak in 2019/20. Posting on LinkedIn in late-2025, he wrote:

“There are a lot of factors driving the decline, but the one that I think deserves more attention is the rapid improvement of perceptions in the quality of Chinese universities.”

The 2026 QS rankings include 72 Chinese (mainland) institutions, compared with 192 in the US and 90 in the UK, putting China into third place globally. When Hong Kong universities are included, China moves into second place with a total of 99.

Another factor in weakening Chinese demand for study abroad is that the country’s disposable income growth has slowed, and consumers have become more cautious and price-sensitive. In May, consumer spending (measured in terms of retail sales) fell by -0.6% compared with May 2025 – the first year-on-year decline since the pandemic. Chinese consumers are using more of their income to pay off debt, and in a major departure from habits in the 2010s, they are becoming much more interested in discounted and second-hand goods.

Amid these consumer trends – and with so many high-quality Chinese and international universities close at hand – Chinese students have less reason to study abroad than in the 2020s.

The Chinese government wants to see the number of Chinese students enrolled in transnational education programmes to rise from 800,000 to eight million, and it is rapidly expanding international research collaborations, branch campuses, and joint programmes with foreign institutions.

For additional background, please see:

• “Inbound, outbound, and transnational: the landscape for international education in China continues to evolve”
• “China opens up to global STEM talent with new visa class”
• “China leverages higher education capacity with expanded TNE partnerships”
• “China: Two-thirds of new TNE partnerships are with countries outside the Big Four”