Survey of 67,000 prospective students highlights gaps between interest and enrolment for study abroad

Keystone Education Group released its annual report, The State of Student Recruitment 2026, last week. Presenting at the NAFSA conference in Orlando, Dr Mark Bennett, Keystone's vice president of research & insight, shared highlights from this year's findings.

The report is based on survey findings from just over 67,000 prospective international students from 150 countries. The survey data was collected between October 2025 and April 2026, and Keystone has combined it, where appropriate, with actual search data from its student-facing course search websites.

The first thing that jumps out from the data is the difference between student interest (the destinations students are most interested in) and student intent (the destination where they actually go on to enrol).

For example, Keystone explains, "While the USA was our most-searched destination (19%), fewer students in our survey are selecting it as their intended study destination, a trend that has persisted for the second year running."

In other words, there is currently a significant gap between students' initial interest in the Big Four study destinations and their actual enrolment. While students may want to enrol in a preferred destination, they then weigh practical considerations such as their chance of obtaining a study visa and also compare the relative safety and affordability of various options.

"Basically, the Big Four has a huge amount of interest and high appeal," adds Dr Bennett. "But when we move on to actual intent, we move on to practical factors. That's where the gap is."

The Keystone data shows that student interest continues to fragment across a wider field of study destinations, especially those in Europe and Asia. What's more, more students are now wanting to choose a destination before progressing to considering programmes or institutions.

Intended programme of study remains the most important factor (40%) for students making decisions about study abroad, but it has lost some ground since 2025. By contrast, country choice has risen from a sample-wide average of 20% in 2025 to 28% in 2026 – an average pulled up by certain regional trends. Keystone explains, "For South Asian respondents specifically, country (35%) now outranks programme (31%). This is the only regional audience where we see this happen, and the one most exposed to recent visa and policy changes. This suggests that students are ensuring their chosen destinations are accessible to them before they can consider institutions or courses."

As for their biggest concerns, cost and eligibility were the top worries for students in this year's survey, echoing responses from last year. But "political uncertainty" is the fastest-rising concern in 2026 (rated third by students after only cost and eligibility), which points to a significant level of anxiety attached to study abroad decision-making. Students are well-aware of visa barriers and rejection rates, and they are naturally worried that government policies affecting their study/work plans could change before or during their programme.

"Confidence is declining," says Keystone. "Students worry less about their ability to succeed than their opportunity to do so."

How do students rate destinations in that larger set?

"The Big 4 still compete on appeal, especially when considering academic reputation and subject offering," says Keystone. "But they don’t have a commanding lead. And they’re falling behind on the practical considerations that make studying abroad possible for many."

The chart below shows relative ratings given by students, for various decision factors, across the Big Four, selected destinations in Europe (Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, France), and a sample of Asian destinations (Japan, China, South Korea).

Dr Bennett points out that what this data is telling us is that "Prospective students don’t think the gap between destinations is as big as we perhaps do."

Use versus trust

The survey findings also paint an interesting picture of the sources and channels that students use in their search for information about study abroad. As we see in the chart below, AI use, for example, is comparable to the percentage that say they look for information on university websites. But the trust students extend to those institutional websites considerably outstrips their confidence in the information they get via AIs.

Keystone offers this summary of the findings in this area: "The takeaway here is reassuring for institutions: even as AI and social media reshape how students search, they haven't reshaped who students believe. University websites remain the anchor of credibility, the one channel audiences approach with conviction rather than uncertainty."

"Generative and broad-search tools may dominate the discovery phase, but trust still flows to curated, human-crafted sources. The implication is clear: investing in owned channels and curated partnerships isn't just defensible, it's where decisions actually get made."

For additional background, please see:

• "New IDP research shows link between visa uncertainty and the perceived ROI of study abroad"
• "UNESCO confirms growing trend of intra-regional student mobility"
• "UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more"
• "From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen"
• "What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad"