Year in review: What we learned in 2025
The market is shifting
Somewhere in the middle of 2025 we started talking not just about the Big Four study destinations – the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada – but also about the Big 14. The latter term is admittedly not always carefully defined but it certainly has gained currency in recent months as a way to describe one of the most important macro trends shaping student mobility this year.
The Big 14 is generally understood to include not only those major English-speaking destinations but also a number of additional countries in Europe and Asia that continue to attract greater numbers of international students. We're talking here about destinations like Spain, Italy, Germany, France, Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan – and several more besides.
There are a number of factors at work here, including of course the more restrictive policies put in place across the Big Four over the last couple of years. But that is only part of the story. This important market dynamic is also being driven by demand-side changes, including students' interest in more affordable destinations, and by a more active recruitment effort on the part of many of the Big 14 countries.
All that to say there is an excellent chance that we will look back on 2025 as a turning point in the history of our sector in this respect. And that it will be seen as the year in which the marketplace became more competitive and more diverse in terms of global student flows across a wider field of destinations.
The calculus of study abroad is different now
There is no question that there is now a greater emphasis across student markets on affordability and on the return on investment for study abroad.
Those factors – affordability and ROI – have come to the fore in recent years. This is not new, but what we're talking about here is a matter of degree. The extent to which this is a priority for students in the decisions that they make about where and how they study abroad.
It feels like this is another market-shaping factor that reached a turning point in 2025. When we look back at all of the large-scale student surveys from the year, we see the same findings coming through. Issues around affordability and the expected value of study abroad are now the most important decision factors for students when planning their study abroad programmes. The importance of that reflects in different ways. Students talk about cost of study, cost of living, availability of scholarships, work opportunities, graduate outcomes, but we can understand that what is underpinning those priorities are these important drivers in terms of affordability and return on investment.
The effects of these patterns are already wide ranging. They have an impact on destination choice of course, but also a massive influence on student expectations for study abroad, especially as they pertain to graduate outcomes.
Public support comes from alignment
Speaking on our most recent edition of the ICEF Podcast, immigration specialist Jeremy Neufeld made the point that immigration policy, as it relates to international students, has to deliver demonstrable, broad-based benefits for the host country. This is especially key if we are to encourage or maintain the support of the general public, and of policy makers as well, for international education.
It feels like we have learned this lesson a number of different ways over the last two or three years. Our expectation is that, going forward, we will see a much greater degree of alignment between government policy, institutional recruiting, and the larger societal and economic goals of an individual study destination.
This time we really mean it
We have been talking about diversification of foreign enrolment for years. But 2025 might be the year where the importance of building a diverse student body has truly come to the fore for a critical mass of international educators.
Major study destinations have historically been over-reliant on students from a relatively small number of countries, and from China and India in particular. But Chinese numbers have been softening since before the pandemic, and India is now showing signs of slowing as well. At the same time, many institutions are becoming more targeted in their recruitment efforts and are working more actively to manage risk by diversifying recruitment across a wider field of markets. We expect that more active effort toward diversification to extend into 2026 and beyond.
AI is here
Everyone's favourite acronym came into even greater prominence this year, and we began to see AI having more concrete impacts across the sector.
Specifically, the role of AI in students' search for study abroad options. We are tracking a rapid expansion of the use of AI search, and especially in education. And stakeholders across our sector are moving quickly to learn and adapt to a "zero-click" future and a very different landscape for online search.
At the same time, international recruitment professionals are making greater use of AI tools in order to manage their recruitment pipelines and engage with prospective students more effectively and efficiently. Especially in a more competitive environment – where timeliness and responsiveness are key – we can expect this AI toolkit to expand and develop further in the year ahead.
Thank you
Last but not least, we want to take this opportunity to thank you for reading and learning along with us. We look forward to more of the same in 2026, and to bringing you the latest insights on international recruitment all through the year.
