New analysis forecasts marginal growth for foreign enrolment in Australia through 2030

In the five years leading up to the pandemic, Australia's foreign enrolment grew at an average of 10% year over year. Those numbers surged again in the post-COVID recovery, growing by 40% in 2023 alone.

A newly released analysis from QS projects that that growth will moderate over the balance of this decade, with a forecast for 2% annual growth through 2030. This forecast is part of QS's ongoing Global Student Flows initiative, and it reflects in large part the disruption (and continuing impact) arising from the policy and process changes introduced in Australia over the last 18 months.

QS projects that Australia's international enrolment will reach 770,000 by 2030, from a current base of about 680,000. That total includes higher education, English language training (ELICOS), and school enrolments, but does not factor students in vocational training. "The deceleration isn’t unique to Australia," explains QS. "A combination of slower economic growth in major sending countries - particularly China - and tighter policy settings in host countries is dampening momentum across the global education sector. In this context, Australia is expected to see the second-fastest growth among the major Anglophone destinations, behind the UK."

There is, even with the more modest growth outlook for the next several years, a certain cautious optimism in the QS forecast. The things that could intrude on that, and act as further brakes on growth this decade, include a sharper-than-projected slowdown in China, economic instability in key sending markets, and any further tightening of Australia's immigration policies for international students. The latter two factors are particularly relevant for students coming from key markets in Southeast Asia and South Asia, which are expected to drive much of the growth for Australia over the next several years.

QS adds that, "The sector has reached an inflection point - no longer is it defined by rapid expansion, but by how it manages risk, diversification, and policy recalibration."

The way forward

The report sets out three key strategies for Australian institutions going forward.

First, a shift from volume to value. This is essentially a call for Australian institutions to develop distinctive value propositions that provide for a sound competitive position and speak to the priorities of an increasingly selective international student market. To a large extent, those priorities revolve around graduate outcomes, and so communicating those outcomes and demonstrating direct paths between study and careers are critical elements of establishing that value for prospective students.

Second, the report argues for a closer alignment between educational programmes and labour market needs. "Universities need to ensure the skills their graduates leave programmes with are the same as those for which industry is calling out," says QS. "Wide-ranging programme portfolios focusing on labour shortages, curriculum codesigned with industry and work integrated learning will remain vital, and indeed need to be stepped up."

Finally, focus on reputation. Australian universities have been losing ground in terms of reputation among employers, and the report highlights the importance of "preserving and rebuilding reputations, especially among employers in markets where students come from" as critical to driving inbound student mobility in the future.

The report concludes: "With low growth, Australian institutions are going to be forced into a battle for market share, rather than working towards rapid expansion. Understanding this environment is key as universities also face calls for increased efficiency following rising costs, discounting course fees, and a turbulent policy environment."

For additional background, please see:

• "New analysis forecasts international student mobility through 2030"
• "Australia raises enrolment limits for 2025/26 but are they reachable?"
• "Australia’s central bank highlights importance of international students to national economy"