UK transnational education enrolments poised to surpass onshore students this decade

The latest available numbers from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) tell us that there were 732,285 international students in UK higher education in 2023/24, representing a modest dip (-4%) from the year before.

Universities UK released its latest report on the scale of UK HEI delivery of transnational education today and it finds that there were 653,570 students enrolled in UK TNE programming in 2023/24. "The number of UK HE TNE students now compares closely to the number of onshore international students recruited to the UK," says the report. "From 2022/23 to 2023/24, the UK…saw a +7.8% growth in UK HE TNE students. If the same growth/reduction rates were to continue for another academic year, the number of UK HE TNE students would overtake onshore international student recruitment to the UK in 2024/25."

As that trend suggests, the scale of the TNE opportunity is massive. Less than 3% of the world's higher education students are internationally mobile and, standing behind them, are millions more with a strong drive to access foreign credentials and high-quality provision.

The shape of UK TNE

As we see in the following charts, UK TNE provision skews toward undergraduate students, although both undergraduate and graduate enrolments have seen steady growth over the past decade. And it also is heavily weighted to in-person delivery, as opposed to remote or distance education.

As of 2023/24, 43% of UK TNE students were enrolled in collaborative provision programmes (that is, programmes delivered with a partner institution or organisation). Another quarter were registered at a partner institution abroad, and a similar proportion were studying in distance education. Only about 7% were studying at a branch campus overseas.

Universities UK adds that, "Over the past five years, since 2019/20, the most significant
growth has been in the number of UK HE TNE students registered at an overseas partner organisation (+72.5% increase), and those studying via collaborative provision (+58.0% increase)."

Where are the students?

Asia is home to more than half of UK TNE students (just over 51% as of 2023/24), with much of the balance distributed across Europe (18%), the Middle East (14%), and Africa (11%).

Asia is driving the five-year growth trend, as we see in the figure below, but the Middle East is showing notable gains as well and was, in percentage terms, the fastest growing region (58%) from 2019/20 to 2023/24.

Taking up centre stage

Writing on the Universities UK blog recently, Dr David Pilsbury, chief development officer at Oxford International Education Group, said, "TNE is moving from the periphery to centre stage in higher education…What was once a niche activity has become a strategic imperative for universities and nations alike."

He adds, "There are many drivers behind the momentum for change. The UK must urgently shift focus away from just students coming to the UK, to a more universal approach that embraces TNE in all its forms. If we fail to seize the opportunity now, the UK risks losing its chance to remain an international leader in this field – a chance that, arguably, will not come again."

For additional background, please see:

• "China leverages higher education capacity with expanded TNE partnerships"
• "Global survey highlights new phase of internationalisation: From a 'market era' to a 'managed era'"
• "UK transnational education expands at fastest rate ever"