US: International commencements could drop by 30-40% this September
- A new analysis forecasts that new student enrolments in the US could drop by a third or more this fall, due especially to backlogs in visa processing during the key May-August processing period
- That forecasts represents a potential loss of 150,000 students with an estimated impact of US$7 billion and with more than 60,000 jobs affected across the United States
- Stakeholders are urging the US administration to expedite appointment scheduling and processing for students planning to begin their studies in the US this September
A new analysis from NAFSA and the research consultancy JB International projects that international student commencements in the US could decline by as much as -30% or -40% for the key fall intake this September.
That would in turn reduce international student numbers in the US by -15% for the 2025/26 academic year, equivalent to the loss of 150,000 students compared to the year before. The NAFSA/JBI analysis estimates the economic impact of that reduction at US$7 billion with more than 60,000 jobs affected across the United States. This would, says NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw, be "one the most significant drops in international enrolment in recent times."
“The immediate economic losses projected here are just the tip of the iceberg," she added. "International students drive innovation, advance America’s global competitiveness, and create research and academic opportunities in our local colleges that will benefit our country for generations. For the United States to succeed in the global economy, we must keep our doors open to students from around the world.”
Behind the forecast
The analysis points clearly to four key factors that are driving the projected decline for the coming academic year.
They include the suspension of visa interviews from 27 May through 18 June, limited visa appointment availability following the resumption of interview scheduling in late-June, a softening of visa issuance numbers through the first half of 2025, and the US administration's travel ban. On 4 June, the US established a full travel ban for citizens for 12 countries, and a partial ban on those from another seven nations. Shortly after, the administration acknowledged it was considering expanding full or partial bans to another 36 countries, including a number of key sending markets in Africa.
NAFSA advises, based on reports from the field and from US colleges, that there is limited availability for visa appointments in a number of key student markets, including India, China, Nigeria, and Japan. Meanwhile, Department of State data reveals that F-1 visa issuance declined by -12% from January through April 2025 (compared to the same period the year before), and -22% in the month of May alone. "We already know that visa issuances were down in May," says JB International CEO Jason Baumgartner. "The last few days of May was also the kick-off of a visa [processing] pause for students. That visa pause continued through the third week of June but even after that we're not sure exactly when full interviews picked back up as [the State Department] was still sorting out their vetting process. So we might be looking at as much as an 80-90% decline in visa issuance for the month of June."
Dr Aw adds. "When you look at the number of [total visa issuances for the US] that took place in the month of May, the issue doesn't seem to be one of capacity at the US embassies because we see the high volumes of visas [across all categories] that are issued. Where the problem seems to reside is around international students in particular. It's unclear whether it's the additional social vetting that has slowed down this process [for students] or if there are other factors. It is not too late [for students coming for September] if the government decided to prioritise students."
She concludes that, "The [issue with visa processing] is not just a technical glitch. It is a policy failure that has human consequences and economic consequences…Make no mistake: this is not a one-year problem. For anyone who works in this sector we know that the ripple effects can conceivably be for several years unless there is course correction."
Call for action
"We did not wait to for the fall semester to know where this train is going," says Dr Aw. "And this is not a one-time thing. We will continue to conduct follow up analysis [as more data becomes available]."
"It is incredibly important that we start understanding the dynamics now while there is still time for course correction on the part of the government. This analysis, the first to calculate the potential economic impact of fewer international students on cities and towns across the country, should serve as a clarion call to the State Department that it must act to ensure international students and scholars are able to arrive on US campuses this fall."
NAFSA is now urging the State Department to provide expedited visa appointments and processing for all F-1 and M-1 students and J-1 exchange visitor applicants. The association is further urging the administration to exempt F and M students as well as J exchange visitors from travel ban restrictions "while maintaining background checks and vetting required for visa issuance."
On 24 July, this call was amplified through a joint letter from 15 Members of Congress to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. "As Members of Congress who represent research universities, we are concerned by reports from our constituent universities about Indian students who have been unable to obtain visas to continue their education in the United States," the letter says. "We have seen first-hand how their contributions to science and research keep our nation competitive. We are dismayed at the possibility that many of these bright young individuals may be blocked – due to limited appointment availability and scheduling delays at the US embassies in India – from continuing their education and research in the United States." The group has asked the Secretary to respond by 8 August to indicate what the State Department is doing to alleviate the backlog in India in particular.
"There is work to be done and we cannot afford to be tired at this point," concludes Dr As. "There is so much at stake and most importantly there is so much at stake for these young people who are trying to come to the United States."
"The data is clear. The costs are real. The time to act is absolutely now. This is not just about the numbers. It's really about values, our vision, and our commitment to being a destination for talent and for young people of promise. We cannot afford to close the door on these students."
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