US institutions bracing for a challenging enrolment outlook for 2025/26

The Institute of International Education's (IIE) twice-yearly snapshot surveys are always required reading for international educators. That is especially true this year amid a period of uncertainty around US-bound student mobility, arising in large part from a pattern of troubling measures from the US administration. Those include, beginning in early March of this year, increased immigration enforcement action targeting international students, heightened scrutiny of student visa processing, revocation of visa status for current students, administrative pressure or sanctions on Ivy League institutions, a three-week-plus pause on scheduling new visa interviews, an assertion from the State Department that it intends to revoke the status of some Chinese students in the US, a travel ban affecting students from 19 countries, and the prospect of a widening ban later this year.

The IIE's Spring 2025 Snapshot on International Educational Exchange arrives against that backdrop of uncertainty and disruption, and it reflects a growing concern among US educators as to how international enrolment will take shape in the coming academic year.

The Spring 2025 Snapshot gathers survey data from 559 higher education institutions in the United States, and its key finding is that, "In the 2025/26 academic year, a higher proportion of US respondent institutions anticipate a decline in their international student numbers across all academic levels."

The extent of those enrolment changes is of course difficult to quantify. On 19 June, for example, the US announced a resumption of visa interview scheduling after a more-than-three-week pause during the key four-month processing period during which roughly 70% of US student visas are issued each year. The pace at which US visa offices can catch up on that backlog, especially with the expanded applicant vetting requirements now in place, remains uncertain.

But a second chart from IIE highlights the scale of issue, as indicated by volumes of applications from international students. The 35% of responding institutions reporting a decline in application volumes for the coming academic year is higher than that of any other recent year, except for the pandemic period.

"Institutions anticipating declines in international student enrolment cite several key challenges, many of which may stem from changes in policies or practice," notes IIE. "As they have in past snapshot surveys, visa application process-related issues remain the most frequently cited concern, with 87% of respondents noting that delays or denials may impact enrolment…Additionally, institutions cited concerns about potential difficulties at the US port of entry (69%) and uncertainties surrounding visa status while in the country (68%), including the possibility of revocation."

There is a further note of caution to hold in mind while reading these charts: while they show a significant proportion of respondents anticipate a decline for 2025/26, they also reflect that the majority of US institutions expect foreign enrolments to be stable or even to grow. This demonstrates that the impact of a softening enrolment trend is not likely to felt equally across the US system, with some institutions expecting to be more heavily impacted than others.

The IIE Snapshot report also highlights a number of ways in which American universities and colleges are adapting their recruitment this year, notably that, "Many institutions are enhancing their outreach through more personalised communication to both prospective and admitted students. For example, institutions cited working with current international students to connect directly with prospective students, helping to showcase a welcoming environment. Others have worked to highlight the experiences of current students and alumni through testimonials, offering authentic insights into campus life." The report adds that, "Meanwhile, other institutions are adopting new strategies to attract international students. Some institutions noted working more closely with educational agencies, hiring consulting firms, pivoting to different regions for recruitment, creating partnership programs, exploring ways to increase online offerings, and leveraging AI tools to enhance their operations. Together, these actions reflect a forward-looking commitment to sustaining and strengthening international engagement."

Projecting scale of impact

Another indication of international enrolment in the US for the coming year comes from Chris Glass, a professor and higher education specialist at Boston College and an affiliated faculty member at the Center for International Higher Education.

Professor Glass examined the non-immigrant visa data for the period January through May 2025, and found that the number of F-1 visas issued dropped by more than -14% compared to the same period the year before.

Professor Glass has also projected that the visa processing pause this spring and early summer, in combination with the now-expanded vetting requirements, could lead to between 80,000 and 145,000 fewer visa appointments from June through August, compared to the same period last year. "This translates into a potential international student enrolment drop of -7% to -11% this fall," he says.

For additional background, please see:

• "US issues corrected student visa data showing growth for 2024 while current trends point to an enrolment decline for 2025/26"
• "Survey finds US institutions expanding agency engagement and focusing on new student markets"
• "US warns of expanded travel ban that could affect key African markets"
• "Breaking: US resumes student visa processing"