Measuring the impacts of the first full year of Canada’s foreign student enrolment cap

In January 2024, Canada's immigration ministry (Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, or IRCC) announced a two-year cap on the number of new study permits issued to international students. The stated goal of the policy at the time was to accomplish a -35% reduction in the number of new study permits issued in 2024, relative to 2023 levels. This effectively set a target of 364,000 approved study permits for the year, not counting extensions or renewals.

The full-year numbers for 2024 are now available and they show clearly that the government has considerably overshot its target for the year. Data provided to ICEF Monitor by IRCC shows that the total number of new study permits issued in 2024 was 267,890 – a roughly -48% reduction from 2023 levels and nearly 100,000 study permits below the official IRCC target.

The chart highlights right away a couple of factors that contributed to that larger-than-projected decline in 2024. First, the total number of new study permit applications processed fell by nearly a third (-32%). This reflects not only the limits of the enrolment cap but also a substantial shift in student demand away from Canada, whether out of concern for the chances of obtaining a study permit under the cap or because of the many other policy changes introduced during the year with respect to post-study work rights, accompanying dependants, increased financial requirements, and more.

With all of those changes in mind (and understanding that they all represent important market signals to students and their families that Canada is deliberately setting up a more restrictive system for international students), it is not surprising to learn that this declining enrolment pattern is playing out in cap-exempt programme areas as well, such as master's and doctoral studies.

The other significant factor in 2024 was a dramatic decrease in the approval rate for new study permits. In 2023, for example, roughly six out of every ten study permit applications (59.8%) were approved. In 2024, however, that approval rate fell to 48% – meaning that more than half of all applicants were rejected during the year.

A dreadful accounting

That more restrictive policy environment has introduced considerable uncertainty and stress for students already studying in Canada or planning to do so. And the difficulty that those new policy settings present for eligible and qualified students should always be front and centre.

But the impact of the enrolment cap and related policy settings is now taking hold across the Canadian system as well. The full effect in terms of actual enrolment will not be completely clear until later this year or even early 2026. But already institutions across the country are reporting significant declines in foreign enrolment, typically in the range of -30% to -50% (which is very much in keeping with the macro trends we see reflected in the chart above).

Many universities and colleges are facing a challenging financial position – primarily due to continuing declines in real public funding of the post-secondary system combined with ongoing upward pressure on operating costs – and have become increasingly reliant on international tuition revenues as a result. The sharp reduction in enrolment over the past year has therefore led quickly to significant job losses and programme cuts across the Canadian system.

We saw one indication of this earlier this month when an arbitrator's report, concerned with a new labour agreement between a major union and colleges in the Province of Ontario, highlighted that 23 of the 24 colleges in Ontario have reported a -48% decrease in for enrolment between September 2023 and September 2024.

"The impact of these declining numbers of foreign students has been both immediate and dramatic," writes the arbitrator, William Kaplan. "By the spring of 2025, more than 600 programmes were cancelled [or] suspended, or their cancellation/suspensions announced, and four colleges have closed campuses or announced their closure. The list of programme cancellation/suspensions disclosed in these proceedings is, in a word, alarming."

Mr Kaplan adds that, as of June 2025, 19 of Ontario's 24 colleges had reported staff reductions – both actual and planned – of more than 8,000 employees. Speaking separately about the findings in Mr Kaplan's report, JP Hornick of the Ontario Public Service Employees Union said that those job losses represented "one of the largest mass layoffs in Ontario's history."

Meanwhile, Ken Steele, president of the higher education consultancy Eduvation, has been publicly and more broadly tracking the mounting job losses in Canadian post-secondary. The latest iteration of his ongoing tally (current as of 23 July 2025) is shown in the figure below. It counts 8,580 job losses to date in Canadian universities and colleges, roughly 60% of which are attributed to public colleges in Ontario.

However, if the numbers given in Mr Kaplan's arbitration report are correct, that would suggest that actual and planned reductions in Canadian post-secondary employment are now approaching 12,000 in total, and that does not factor any such losses outside of the public, post-secondary system, such as in language training or private post-secondary institutions.

Looking ahead

The cap was originally put in place for a two-year period – that is, for 2024 and 2025. In September 2024, then-immigration Minister Marc Miller announced that the cap would be extended into 2026 as well, with cap limits for 2025 and 2026 to be set at -10% below 2024 levels.

More broadly, Canada's strategic immigration plan for 2025–2027 includes, for the first time, specific targets for temporary residents, including international students and temporary foreign workers.

The IRCC plan also sets out a goal to reduce the overall proportion of temporary residents to 5% of Canada's population by 2026. Shortly after the IRCC plan was first released, the Bank of Canada signalled that it was unlikely the country would reach that target for temporary residents by 2026. Prime Minister Mark Carney appeared to concur with that finding in an early press conference when he asserted that Canada would continue to work to that 5% target, but would aim to reach it by the end of 2027.

The Globe & Mail newspaper recently said of the temporary resident population in Canada, "After peaking at 7.35% of the total population in late 2024, the share declined only modestly to 7.12% by April 2025 – still well above the 5% goal."

The report projects that the 5% target is unlikely to be met until 2029 or later, arguing that instead, "We should revisit that target and its timeline, and focus on building the systems needed to manage temporary flows sustainably."

The Globe adds, because of broader increases in the number of temporary residents in Canada, that, "While the [foreign student] cap has hurt Canada’s postsecondary institutions, many of which rely on international tuition, it has not led to a meaningful overall reduction in temporary resident numbers."

For additional background, please see:

• "Canada’s new government strikes a more conservative note on immigration"
• "Is Canada valued more as a 'pathway to immigration' or as a destination for education?"
• "High study visa refusal rates disrupting the international education landscape"