British Council says student recruitment to UK higher education will get a boost this year from South Asia and the “Trump effect”
- A new analysis says that the UK may be well positioned to gain market share due to softening demand for study in the US
- The same forecast projects that South Asia will be an important growth driver for UK higher education in 2026
"Demand for UK education will remain resilient over the coming year despite increased competition from intra-regional mobility in East Asia and a slowdown in student flows from China," says the latest edition of the annual 5 Trends to Watch report from the British Council's East Asia Insights Hub.
That outlook relies in part on the British Council's projection that international enrolment in the United States will soften throughout 2026. "The Trump effect is already showing up in the data, with enrolments down by 17,000 in December 2025 from the same month a year prior. This data likely undercounts the full effect…with most of these enrolment decisions having been made before Trump’s re-election in November 2024. The downturn will likely become more apparent in 2026."
Indeed, new data released this week by the US Department of State reveals that F-1 visa grants fell by -36% in 2025 during the key May-August period. Some of the contributing factors in that decline were the Trump administration's nearly month-long suspension of visa interviews beginning in May 2025; its revocation of thousands of student visas; and its foreshadowing of key rule changes affecting the duration of student visas and post-study rights for international students.
The report concludes that that weakening demand for study in the US opens up new opportunities to recruit students for UK institutions, and especially "to attract greater numbers of STEM students who typically prefer the USA over the UK."
The most important growth market
The British Council also sees South Asia as a driver of growth for UK institutions in 2026, both for onshore recruitment and in terms of enrolments in UK transnational education programmes in the region.
The report notes that, "Across South Asia, issuance of UK student visas is on the rise, reversing a downward trend that began in 2023. Through the first three quarters of 2025, the UK issued 26,000 more visas to students from South Asia than in the same period in 2024, far outpacing growth in other regions. In Bangladesh and Nepal, the UK issued roughly twice as many student visas in 2025 than the year before; in Pakistan, issuance of UK student visas is at all-time highs. In India, there remains substantial room for further growth in 2026."
However, there is also a note of caution around the outlook for South Asia, and a call for "more sustainable engagement strategies" so as not to perpetuate a boom and bust cycle of recruitment in the region, and especially where rapidly rising student numbers might contribute to more restrictive policy in the UK.
Contrasting data points
The British Council's outlook for the year could be contrasted against some countervailing indicators, including that study visa applications reached a low ebb in January 2026. Only 19,800 students applied for a UK visa that month, the lowest volume in four years.
That dip in application numbers comes on the heels of two consecutive years of declining foreign enrolment in the UK, where student numbers fell by -6% in 2024/25 alone.
Forward-looking data from IDP finds that the UK also has the lowest proportion of students planning to apply within the next six months (when compared to other major destinations). That lagging position is attributed in part to a reduction in the term of the Graduate Route – the post-study work period for eligible foreign graduates in the UK. As of 1 January 2027, the Graduate Route will be reduced from the current two years to 18 months.
Speaking to Times Higher Education this week, Rachel MacSween, IDP's director of partnerships and stakeholder engagement said, "These shifts matter: post‑study employment remains one of the biggest factors in where students choose to study…While we don’t yet have the full picture on applications, we know students are sensitive to visa uncertainty and many are making decisions earlier in the cycle to feel secure.”
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