Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year

On 20 March, Australia’s Assistant Minister for International Education, Julian Hill, published a statement entitled Continuity and change: the year ahead for international education, in which he considers international education to be a “national strength.” The title describes Mr Hill’s belief in policy stability (continuity) as a way of grounding the necessary evolution of the sector (change).

The op-ed is a study in rhetoric. It is well written and structured. It positions the government as supportive of the international education sector. And it is persuasive in asserting that there remains a need for policies that “boost integrity and crack down on dodgy practices …. to combat the exploitation of overseas students and address behaviours that seek to exploit the migration system.” No one in international education would take issue with those points.

Further, Mr Hill writes:

“Continuity in the form of policy stability is good for providers, students and Australia’s global market positioning in a chaotic world where competitors are lurching and rapidly changing settings …. we aim to maximise policy stability and minimise policy shocks.”

This is a fine idea. Except that the government’s international education policies have never been less stable than over the past two years.

Mr Hill calls out competitors for “lurching and rapidly changing settings,” yet Australia stands with Canada as outliers in terms of the scale and pace of government interventions in the international education sector. Rule changes – from visa fees to post-study work rights and more – are announced frequently and with little to no sectoral consultation or forewarning, leaving institutions scrambling to adjust, often with weeks or days to react.

An article in The Koala News elaborates:

“For a sector like international education, predictability is not a luxury, it is foundational. Providers plan years in advance, setting recruitment targets, building offshore pipelines, investing in partnerships and staffing based on policy settings they expect to hold. When those settings shift rapidly or without clear forward guidance, the impact is immediate and far reaching. Agents lose confidence, students look elsewhere, and institutions are left recalibrating mid cycle. In this context, predictability is not about resisting reform, but about enabling it to land effectively. Without a stable and clearly signalled policy environment, even well-intentioned changes undermine the very outcomes they are designed to achieve. This is a message the government is reluctant to accept.”

Not targeted enough

The stated goal of the government’s policies is to curtail bad actors (i.e., unethical agents, institutions, and students who use study visas mainly or entirely to work/immigrate to Australia). The problems here are that:

• Their design is broadly punitive rather than targeted.
• They are not just dissuading non-genuine students from entering the country. They are also dampening demand from genuine students.

A notable drop in commencements; ELICOS and VET hard hit

The latest available data from Australia’s Department of Education reports:

“In the YTD December 2025, 846,321 international students studied in Australia, a -0.5%  decline on the same period in 2024. The number of new students, studying in Australia in 2025 (202,882) declined by -15% on the same period in 2024.

The Higher Education sector still had growth in enrolments on the same period in 2024 (10%), followed by Schools (4%), while all other sectors showed declines, notably ELICOS (-35%).”

Those numbers tell the tale of a sector in which key segments are travelling in opposite directions. And indeed that lower student demand is especially notable in the English-language (ELICOS) and vocational education (VET) sectors.

Starting in mid-2023, the Australian government has hiked the application fee for a student visa three times, landing on the current cost of AU$2,000. With every increase, reputable English-language providers have lost significant numbers of students and have been disproportionately affected compared with universities.

This is because English-language programmes tend to be relatively short and less expensive than diplomas or degrees. For many prospective ELICOS students, the AU$2,000 (non-refundable) fee represents up to 40% of the total cost for a programme. For students from source countries with high visa refusal rates, the possibility of paying that much for a visa they may not receive is disheartening – and often leads them to choose another destination.

The example of Colombia

Colombia is a good example of how fee increases and visa rejection rates are hitting the ELICOS sector. Colombia is currently the seventh largest market for international education, and one that is predominantly concentrated in the ELICOS sector.

Since 2023, Colombian ELICOS enrolments and commencements have fallen by -63% and -96%, respectively. This coincides with:

• Refusal rates for Colombian ELICOS applicants rising from about 4% in 2022/23 to around 40% in 2024/25;
• Application fee increases in 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Data in the following chart suggests a correlation between fee increases and enrolments and commencements over three years.

Across all source markets, Colombian and otherwise, visa applications fell -39% for ELICOS programmes between 2024 and 2025. Vocational (VET) institutions have also been hit hard, with applications down by -35%.

The downstream effect for higher education

Colombian students mostly come to Australia for English-language or vocational studies and relatively small proportion progresses to higher education. But other top ELICOS markets such as Thailand are also important markets for Australian universities, and many students begin in ELICOS then go on to higher education. If we look at 2024/25, 28% of Thais who enrolled for the first time at an Australian university studied an ELICOS course first.

Sticking with Thailand, Thai commencements in ELICOS began falling dramatically in 2024, as shown in the following chart.

The next chart depicts Thai commencements in higher education. In 2025, after three years of growth, the volume of these commencements fell. Part of the decline is due to the major drop in Thai commencements in ELICOS from 2023 to 2024 – which are just starting to affect numbers in higher education, as it takes anywhere from 6 to 24 months for the ELICOS–higher education pathway to show up in data.

A mixed performance

Much of the strategic direction Mr Hill articulates in his op-ed makes sense: furthering transnational education; matching international student profiles to skills gaps in the Australian economy; and considering international education beyond economic benefits.
 
He is absolutely right that, “A stronger, more sustainable, and resilient international education sector that delivers more value for Australia, providing students with a top-quality education and welcoming experience, is something that everyone can be proud of.”

But this will not happen if policies continue to punish quality institutions as well as suspect ones, and to gut the ability of excellent ELICOS and VET institutions to draw sufficient enrolments. The international education sector’s health depends on a holistic understanding of its interconnections.

Of the industry response to the op-ed, The Koala News says:

“Across the many voices The Koala has spoken to, a consistent theme has emerged, people are feeling worn down, fatigued and increasingly dispirited …. [Mr Hill’s op-ed] is a signal to the sector that the settings of the past two years are not a phase, they are the foundation of a new policy era…The era of demand-driven international education in Australia is over. [Mr Hill’s statement] reaffirms the pedal is still on the gas for reform even though numbers appear to be moving in the government’s favoured direction.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Australia: Full-year data for 2025 reveals impact of AUD$2,000 study visa application fee on ELICOS sector”
• “Australia: With ELICOS under pressure, peak bodies push for reduction in ‘extortionate’ visa fees”
• “Australia: Visa rejection rates spike as some institutions withdraw admissions offers under new migration settings"