Updated forecast projects marginal decline in foreign enrolment in the US through 2030

In 2024, research firm HolonIQ published an analysis of the likely volume of international students enrolled in US institutions by 2034. The firm predicted that international enrolments could number 1.3 million (the most conservative estimate) or be as high as 2.8 million (the most extreme projection). The actual number – and how close it would reflect either scenario – would depend on the presence (or absence) of geopolitical shocks, significant policy shifts, and welcoming policies around foreign students.

Two years on, HolonIQ’s conservative forecast is the more likely of the two; circumstances have changed enough that the weakest projection of 1.3 million students by 2034 may now be too high.

A newly released forecast from the HolonIQ team, now part of QS, reflects the events of the past two years. Those developments (notably, new policy settings from the US administration and geopolitical instability in general) are part of the reason that QS now anticipates a modest decline in international student enrolments in the US through 2030.

New factors are shaping demand

The QS Global Student Flows: United States report forecasts a -1% annual contraction per year through 2030 on the heels of flat growth from 2019–25. QS explains that the larger context is a “reshaping of global demand [that is] driven less by academic considerations and more by geopolitics, visa regimes, labour market incentives, and demographic pressures.”

Those factors are variously affecting demand in US institutions’ top student markets. For example:

• China: Increased higher education capacity, geopolitical tensions, and accelerating population decline are depressing demand.
• India: Volatile study and work visa policies in the US are the main deterrents, prompting a growing number of Indian students to choose a destination other than the US.
• South Korea: The ageing population means that a dwindling pool of college-aged students will consider study abroad.

QS expects demand from India to decline by -7% through 2030, with much of the drop-off fuelled by uncertainty around, or changes to, work rights in the US. QS notes: “Rising concerns about affordability, stricter US consular views, and long visa appointment backlogs also weigh on sentiment.” However, QS considers that lower demand from India could be temporary.

By contrast, lower demand from China is “likely durable” due to structural and political developments. QS expects a -4% annual Chinese enrolment contraction per year to 2030.

Vietnam is seen to offer the most potential for growth: “Vietnam’s expanding middle class, strong English-language preparation, and preference for business and STEM fields position it as one of the most reliable medium-term markets for US institutions.”

African countries also hold promise for increased inbound flows because of demographics, especially. However, at least half of the countries on President Trump’s current travel ban/restriction list are African – including the key Nigerian market. Between August 2024 and August 2025, new students from Nigeria and Ghana (another important source of students) fell -48% and -51%, respectively.

How will US institutions respond?

QS sees three general themes that may inform US institutions’ adjustment strategies: Regulated Regionalism, Hybrid Multiversity, and Talent Race Rebound.

Regulated Regionalism: Essentially, students in emerging markets become more interested in affordable regional alternatives (e.g., in Asia) and transnational education options (including those with a digital component). As a result, American universities need to “sharpen their value proposition” to compete for top students in priority fields (e.g., STEM) through such strengths as “research-intensive environments, industry linkages, and disciplined student-support services.”

Hybrid Multiversity: Concerned about affordability and increasingly aware of TNE options, students begin their studies at home (e.g., through joint programmes) and then finish them elsewhere. This requires US institutions to prioritise partnerships with overseas institutions, and it depends on supportive visa and post-study work policies that accommodate students who come for short-term courses.

Talent Rebound: This model sees the US government recognising the need to bolster the American labour force with specialised skills, leading it to “prioritise international talent attraction as part of a broader economic strategy.” Specifically:

“US agencies streamline visa processing for students in priority fields such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, quantum science, advanced manufacturing, health professions, and clean energy. Processing times accelerate, compliance systems become more efficient, and pathways from study to work - particularly through OPT and STEM OPT - are clarified and expanded. Discussion around structured, points-based transitions to employment gains momentum in high-demand sectors.”

Strategic realignment

More than half of international students in the US are from India (31%) and China (23%). After that, none of the top 20 markets make up more than 4%. QS rightly states that US institutions need to invest in further diversification amidst declining demand from India and China, and adds that “proactive engagement with policymakers and a commitment to flexible, skills-based education” will also be required.

Policy volatility could shake any projection

While QS’s modelling considers potential policy disruptions, no one is certain yet of just how extreme those disruptions will be in the next four years.

In a November 2025 post assessing the most recent Open Doors’ enrolment data, the Association of American Universities (AAU) wrote:

“The data do not reveal the full extent of the effects of the Trump administration’s policies seeking to limit the ability of international students to enroll and complete their degrees at US universities and gain practical training or work experience following graduation.

This is because many of the administration’s policies, some of which have yet to be finalised or go into effect, were announced after universities had already completed the 2025-26 admissions cycle. Students starting at US colleges and universities this fall, therefore, have been somewhat insulated from the full scope of changes to international education and visas in the United States.

A widely anticipated change to OPT [Optional Practical Training] could especially hurt future international student interest in the United States as a higher education destination. Studies have shown that the OPT program is a key factor influencing international students’ decision to study in the United States. In a recent survey of current international students conducted by the Institute for Progress and NAFSA, a majority (54%) of current international students said they would not have enrolled at a U.S.-based university had OPT not been available to them. These attitudes indicate that the large decreases in graduate enrollment reported in the Fall 2025 snapshot may be a precursor to more pronounced reductions in the future.”

For additional background, please see:

• "US suspends immigration processing for nationals from 39 travel ban countries – but F, J, and M visa processing will continue"
• "US proposes new rules for student visas including term limits and other restrictions"
• "There are more international students in the US than ever in 2025, but commencements are declining"