International student interest in US falls to pandemic-era low

After months of announcements, immigration enforcement actions, and confusion around US policies for international students – as well as the institutions that host them in America – we are beginning to see indications of some sharp changes in student sentiment.

Drawing on its extensive student search data, Studyportals is reporting this week that international student interest in studying in the US has fallen to levels not seen since the peak of pandemic-related travel restrictions in 2020/21.

"Millions of student searches reveal a troubling trend," says a release from Studyportals. "The US is losing its appeal to international students. This decline shows up in two ways. Not only are fewer students searching for US programmes overall, but America is also losing market share to competitors like the UK and Australia."

Looking inside the data, search volumes for study in the United States have been cut in half across Studyportals properties over the four months from 5 January through April 30. That -50% decline is in relation to the most-recent high point of student interest in the US in 2023.

That search data is significant in a couple of ways. First, it reflects shifting student interest at an early stage in the process of planning and decision-making for study abroad. Students searching on Studyportals sites are typically one-to-two years from beginning a programme overseas. Second, Studyportals' internal data demonstrates a strong correlation between that search activity and downstream enrolment trends. In the case of the US, for example, that early search data is 80% correlated to the subsequent foreign enrolments reported by IIE's Open Doors data.

“International students and their families seek predictability and security when choosing which country to trust with their future," said NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw. "The US government’s recent actions have naturally shaken their confidence in the United States. Government actions and policies have consequences. The decline in student interest carries with it serious ramifications for US pre-eminence in research, innovation, and economic strength. This early trend data should serve as an urgent call for Congress to intervene before further long-term damage is done.”

Studyportals' site analytics reveal clear patterns in student choice in that increasing numbers of users who search for study programmes in the United States go on to explore, within the same user session, options in alternate destinations such as the United Kingdom, Spain, Ireland, Australia, Germany, New Zealand, and Switzerland.

“Every student who decides against America isn't just lost tuition money—it's lost talent," adds Studyportals CEO Edwin van Rest. "The person who could've started the next big company or made some major discovery might end up in London instead of Boston, all because of decisions being made right now. The fundamentals of US higher education remain strong. There’s still time to change the story. This is a wake-up call, not a closed chapter.”

For additional background, please see:

• "Trump administration orders a pause on new student visa interviews"
• "Trump administration bars Harvard from enrolling international students"
• "US: Visa status of foreign graduates on OPT under renewed scrutiny"
• "US: Immigration authorities set out the legal basis for revoking student visa status"