US tariffs trigger global economic disruption and new concerns for international educators

If in 2024, we looked back over the past 25 years, most of us would have identified three main events that seriously disrupted international student mobility: the SARS coronavirus that began spreading in 2002, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 crisis that saw borders closed for months, and even years in some countries.

In 2025, we’d have to add a fourth: the global trade war spurred by US President Donald Trump’s imposition of sweeping tariffs on about 90 countries on 2 April. The president said the tariffs are needed to rectify a trade deficit between the US and nearly half the world. The nature and depth of the tariffs differ by country, but this is some of what happened on 2 April:

• China was hit the hardest – President Trump levied a 50% tariff on all Chinese goods (this rose to 125% on 9 April when China retaliated with its own tariffs on US goods);
• Traditional allies were not spared (e.g., EU countries, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea);
• Some of the world’s poorest countries (e.g., Lesotho, Myanmar) were stunned when they received much higher tariff rates than the global average.

Since 2 April, stock markets have recorded near-record volatility and dozens of governments have lined up to negotiate and try to persuade US officials to lower or eliminate the tariffs they were handed. On 9 April, President Trump ordered a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries (not China) except for a 10% “reciprocal tariff” that is being applied across the board. By the time you read this, however, things may have changed. President Trump has a tendency to announce one policy then withdraw it soon after depending on how other countries react.

It is safe to say that a global trade war has now begun, and many economists are predicting a global recession. As UK Health Minister Stephen Kinnock said to Sky News earlier this week, “We live in an incredibly deeply integrated global economy with very integrated supply chains and hugely interdependent commercial relationships, so nobody benefits from a trade war.”

Possible impacts on study abroad decision-making

The impact on international student mobility will be complex and may have some combination of the following features:

• Less demand for study in the US. On top of the risk that they could be refused a visa, have their visas revoked, or even be detained if an ICE officer deems their activities or beliefs to be contrary to US interests, overseas students’ family income may be severely impacted by the global trade environment. Even if a student wanted to study in the US, they may no longer be able to afford to do so. Apart from tariff-related issues, students who are non-white, LGBTQ+, or belonging to another minority could be more hesitant to study in the US given President Trump’s commitment to eliminating DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) efforts and the related political climate.

• Lower volumes of students travelling for study abroad. In addition to levying tariffs, the Trump administration has drastically reduced aid funding to poor countries and paused funding of the World Health Organization (WHO). Governments of those countries may need to reallocate budget from education to healthcare (as disease prevention and control will be weakened). Educational quality in source countries may suffer under these constraints, and government-funded scholarships could become less generous or even eliminated. It’s also possible, in the event of a recession, that some foreign institutions will reduce international scholarship funding.

• Diversion of demand to alternative destinations. When we think of the top fifty countries fuelling international student mobility (both source and destination markets), there are very few – possibly zero – countries that have not been targeted in some way by President Trump through his foreign policies. The president has upended traditional alliances (e.g., EU), been harsh with neighbours (Canada and Mexico), publicly lambasted Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, included friendly Asian nations in steep tariffs, and withdrawn billions of dollars that once supported health and stability in African countries. He has also ratcheted up his war of words and trade war with China. The president’s disregard for scientists and scientific institutions, as well as his authoritarian leanings, are prompting leading US academics and researchers to apply to teach and live in Canada and Europe.

Just a year ago, IDP Education data showed the US gaining share of international student demand due to increasingly restrictive immigration policies in Australia, Canada, and the UK. We do not expect this trend to continue. Rather, the US may join those other leading destinations in losing share of international students. Great numbers of Asian students may favour other Asian countries, including China, for study abroad, and more EU students may choose to stay within their region as well, or consider destinations in Asia or Latin America. The ascending Middle Eastern destinations of UAE and Saudi Arabia may make their way into more students’ consideration sets, and Russia – which has been steadily increasing its international enrolment – stands to benefit as well.

The global order has been dramatically upset, and new alliances and power structures will emerge, which will undoubtably affect the shape of international student mobility.

This all sets up a more challenging foreign student recruitment environment for US schools and colleges. For institutions in other destinations, there will be both opportunities (e.g., diverted student demand) and challenges (e.g., a larger pool of prospects facing financial pressures). As always, communicating steadily and helpfully with partners, agents, and students is a must. Sharp market-listening skills (i.e., to hear how student demand and priorities are changing day by day by monitoring social media, local news in source countries, and talking with trusted contacts) are also key to making sense of how to adapt internationalisation and recruitment strategies.

For additional background, please see:

• “US signals new scrutiny of student visas amid reports of softening demand from foreign students”