US signals new scrutiny of student visas amid reports of softening demand from foreign students

Student surveys conducted earlier this quarter highlight an overall positive disposition among international students towards studying in the United States. There are some indications, however, that overseas demand is changing due to policies set by the Trump administration.

Those policies – both announced and anticipated – are creating a more restrictive environment with respect to student visa processing, and they are prompting mounting uncertainty among prospective students about whether it is wise to study in the US.

"International students and their families seek predictability, security, and a welcoming environment when choosing where to study," says NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw. "The US government’s recent actions have created an atmosphere of fear and confusion that has students, scholars, and their families understandably concerned about their safety and future in the United States…These actions by the government will likely result in prospective students choosing to study elsewhere and current students accelerating the completion of their degrees so they can return home sooner. Students have many options when it comes to study destinations."

Search as an indicator of early-stage interest

Studyportals is reporting a decline in student search volumes for study options in the United States between the first week of January and the first week of March. In some respects, that shift is quite pronounced, notably for advanced degrees (i.e., master's and doctoral programmes) where demand dropped by -38% across Studyportals websites.

"The main markets that are driving this decline include India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Iran, with the latter indicating the largest decline (-61.2%), followed by a steep fall from Bangladesh (-54.1%)," adds Studyportals. "At the same time, the sense of uncertainty in student decision may be evident by the fluctuated demand generated per week, as prospective Indian and Bangladeshi demand rose by 16.1% and 9.9% respectively, and modestly from prospective Pakistani and Nigerian students."

In general, such shifts in search volumes indicate changing preferences among prospective students who are at an early stage of research and planning for study abroad. As such, they may foreshadow demand patterns 12-15 months (or longer) ahead of course start dates.

Picking up on Dr Aw's earlier point, Studyportals has noted that student demand, as indicated by search volumes, is shifting to other destinations this quarter, notably the United Kingdom.

Additional scrutiny for student visa applicants

Students' uncertainty, as reflected in search patterns, may now be further exacerbated by a directive this week from Secretary of State Marco Rubio. In an extensive cable to all US diplomatic posts abroad, Secretary Rubio has instructed US visa offices to apply an additional level of scrutiny to visa applicants.

“Effective immediately, consular officers must refer certain student and exchange visitor (F, M, and J) visa applicants to the Fraud Prevention Unit (FPU) for a mandatory social media check as described below,” the cable instructs. It also quotes the Secretary's remarks from 16 March, when he said, "We don't want people in our country that are going to be committing crimes and undermining our national security or the public safety. It’s that simple, especially people that are here as guests. That is what a visa is…And if you violate the terms of your visitation, you are going to leave."

Reporting on the directive, the independent news site The Handbasket adds that, "The cable is meant to force compliance with two Trump executive orders: EO 14161, Protecting the United States from Foreign Terrorists and Other National Security and Public Safety Threats, and EO 14188, Additional Measures to Combat Anti-Semitism…In addition to applicants they suspect of terrorist connections, it also instructs consulars to perform enhanced social media vetting for any applicants who previously held a student or exchange visa between 7 October 2023 and 31 August 2024, or had their visa terminated between 7 October 2023 and now."

The immediate implication will be more steps and time involved in student visa processing in the US. It also appears that consular officials can now deny visa applications – or even discourage applications from – those students whose social media footprints reflect any hostility towards or criticism of the United States or Israel.

Colleges could lose permission to enrol foreign students

The Trump administration has also threatened colleges with revocation of their authorisation to receive international students if they are judged by the government to be too tolerant of pro-Palestinian protests on their campuses.

The news site Axios first reported the threat last week, quoting an unnamed official from the Department of Homeland Security: "Every institution that has foreign students … will go through some sort of review. You can have so many bad apples in one place that it leads to decertification of the school…I don't think we're at that point yet. But it is not an empty threat."

The significance of the move arises from the distinct structure within the US system for administering student visas. All US institutions and schools are obliged to register visiting students in a national system, the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS). The system hinges in part on each institution's authorisation to enrol foreign students, which in turn is granted by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

DHS currently authorises roughly 7,500 American colleges, schools, and language programmes in this way. And there is a mechanism in place to decertify educators – a process which, once enacted, effectively prevents that college or school from enrolling international students.

It is unclear what next steps, if any, the administration may take on this front. However, Axios adds: "The effort…marks another escalation of Trump's aggressive crackdown on immigration and antisemitism that civil libertarians say stifles campus speech and has led to several lawsuits."

It would be fair to expect that these latest directives will create further confusion and uncertainty for prospective international students considering study in the United States.

For additional background, please see:

• "US: Trump administration actions creating an uncertain outlook for international students"
• "Survey assesses international students’ perceptions of the US under President Trump"