High study visa refusal rates disrupting the international education landscape

International students are facing high rates of visa refusals in top study destinations, which is leading to a host of planning and financial problems for students, institutions, and agencies alike.

In Canada, for example, 52% of study permit applications were refused in 2024, up from 38% in 2023. The overall refusal rate for would-be temporary migrants was 54%.

Syed Hussan, executive director of the Migrant Workers for Change, told the Toronto Star that the Canadian government is making money both from approved and refused temporary resident applications. The average application fee is CDN$150 and in 2024 alone the government "generated an estimated CDN$707.9 million in fees, including CDN$354 million from refused applications” according to Mr Hussan. He considers this “profiting from [applicants’] hopes and dreams” and lays the blame on politics.

But Canada’s immigration ministry, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), told the Star that many refused applications are due to its officials detecting fraud: “IRCC employees receive training on how to detect and combat fraud, and they work hard to protect the integrity of Canada’s citizenship and immigration system.”

Ekaterina Neouimina, a spokesperson and founding member of the Canadian Immigration Lawyers Association, believes that there is not enough transparency around why an application is refused or approved:

“Misrepresentation can be a catch-all term, easily applied to minor inconsistencies or perceived omissions. The lack of transparency in these investigations is deeply concerning, and there’s a real risk of unfairly penalizing applicants for unintentional errors.”

Caps by stealth?

As in Canada, the political climate and a housing shortage has prompted the Australian government to determine that the number of new international students coming into the country is too high. An official cap is not in place, but many in the industry believe that immigration officials are increasingly using subjective criteria when reviewing international students’ applications. A 2024 article in the Australian Financial Review notes that the approach has been described as “caps by stealth.”

There was a 38% reduction in the number of study visas granted by Australian immigration officials from October 2023 to August 2024, an all-sector average driven by a 67% decrease in the vocational (VET) sector and a 50% reduction in the English-language training sector (ELICOS), according to Studymove data consultants. In addition, there were 25% fewer visas issued to students applying to Australian universities in the latter half of 2024.

Uncertainty adds to the scenario

In addition to actual study visa denials, uncertainty about whether (a) an application will be approved and (b) work/immigration rights will be suddenly restricted has made it more challenging for students considering study in Canada, Australia, and the UK.

The previous UK government under Rishi Sunak had mulled restricting the popular Graduate Route, which gives international students 2–3 years of work rights after completing their studies. In the end, the Route was not changed, but the months where it was a possibility did not make it easy for new students to choose the UK over other destinations.

Meanwhile, in the US, study visa refusals reached a record high in 2023, with 36% of F-1 applications denied. Research shows that the prospect of more restrictive policies under the new Trump administration is causing a significant segment of students to pause before applying to the US. A Keystone Education Group pulse survey in October 2024 found that:

“A noteworthy 42% of prospective students indicated that they are less likely to consider studying in the USA following Trump’s re-election. This indicates a rising sense of hesitation among the global student audience. Perhaps more significantly, 41% remain uncertain.”

Higher refusal rates rippling across the industry

The study abroad agency GrowPro was founded in 2013 in Australia and quickly expanded to operations spanning 17 countries by 2023. The agency’s rise coincided with the swell of international student demand for study in Western destinations such as Australia, Canada, the UK, and New Zealand after the COVID-19 pandemic. But the company abruptly ceased operations in February 2025, with the study plans and prepaid fees of an unknown number of students in the balance.

A report in El Diario de Madrid traces a line from GrowPro’s sudden closure to rising visa rejection rates, explaining that, “[GrowPro’s] financial model was based on spending students’ fees before their visas were approved…By mid-2023, the company had accumulated a 50% visa refusal rate , meaning money from students who were unable to travel was no longer available for reimbursement. This problem triggered a ‘snowball effect’ that destroyed confidence in the company and led to its financial collapse.”

The agency has said that it is attempting to ensure that affected students who had lodged their bookings with GrowPro would be financially remunerated. However, refunds have yet to be delivered to all students.

The ripple effects of processing delays

Along with a general trend toward rising rejection rates in top destinations, visa processing delays have also proven to be a significant barrier for students and other temporary travellers. A recent report in Travel and Tour World, for example, points out that, “The US travel industry is facing a major crisis, as extended visa processing times and increased security vetting under President Trump’s second-term policies threaten to deter millions of international visitors. With wait times stretching up to 700 days for some nations, industry experts warn that the US risks losing billions in tourism revenue—just as the country prepares for an unprecedented decade of global sporting events.”

That projection is backed by a recent Oxford Economics report which found that, unless visa wait times improve, the US stands to lose nearly US$19 billion in tourism spending over the next two years.

For additional background, please see:

• “Survey highlights the disruptive effects of visa delays on international students”
• “Australia: Impact of more restrictive visa settings reflected in latest student sentiment survey”
• “Australia and Canada: Rising to the challenge of new immigration policies”