Global higher education enrolments expected to grow through 2035, but new challenges must be addressed
- Times Higher Education has produced a forecasting report on global higher education enrolments and income to 2035
- While growth is expected to continue, it will be dependent on a whole new set of factors
- Equipping students with AI and other technological skills will be a priority for governments and institutions
- However, equally important is affordability so that the greatest possible number of youth can access the training they need
Times Higher Education’s new report, Towards 2035: Projecting the Future of Global Higher Education, predicts that university-level enrolments will continue to grow through 2035 from their present number (264 million globally), but that those enrolments will be shaped and driven by much different forces than in the past.
Enrolment hotspots
Regionally, Asia is expected to enrol the greatest number of students, while Africa will experience the fastest proportional increase in enrolments as a result of expanding access to higher education. China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and other countries with large populations will account for the most enrolments, while Pakistan and the UK should see the most enrolment growth. Enrolments in the US are expected to decline slightly by 2035, and they are forecast to fall off more severely in Eastern Europe (-14%).
Income
Non-research income (university income minus research income) is expected to reach 1.7 trillion by 2035. Different factors will determine non-research income in various global regions. Advanced regions (e.g., Western Europe) and countries (e.g., Switzerland, Hong Kong, UAE) will benefit from higher income per student despite relatively slow enrolment growth. The report says that “higher tuition fee structures, strong investment in HE infrastructure, and TNE expansion” will enable this elevated income per student metric.
African higher education income is also expected to grow, but from a smaller initial base given the less developed education systems in many African countries.
New forces impacting HE systems
The Times Higher Education report notes:
“While enrolment and income projections illustrate the scale of future growth, they do not capture the full complexity and changes of the HE sector. Potential disruptors are reshaping the operating environment for HE worldwide.
AI and digital transformation are redefining teaching, assessment and industry skill needs. Policy and funding changes are applying pressure on institutional sustainability, while international mobility and TNE are challenging traditional provision models. Together, these factors are expected to influence enrolment patterns, university programme portfolios and income models, demanding adjustment, innovative thinking and foresight from both institutions and governments.”
How can institutions and governments evolve?
Business as usual is out the window for colleges and universities striving to remain relevant in the coming decade. The report highlights a number of investments that will be necessary:
“Institutions need to adapt strategically by leveraging technology, aligning programme portfolios with future skills needs, diversifying income and strengthening reputation. Collaboration between governments and universities is increasingly critical, particularly in areas such as visa policy, funding frameworks, qualification recognition and TNE expansion, all of which play a vital role in attracting international students.”
Meanwhile, for governments, the report notes a challenge in “balancing innovation and inclusion.” This is a great point given that youth need to access (1) training and technologies that enable them to participate in the rapidly changing labour force and (2) affordable higher education. The two go hand in hand if governments are to expand the segment of their population equipped with leading-edge competencies. But the investments needed to evolve higher education systems are not small, heightening the challenge of providing affordable education.
The report sets out these considerations for governments:
“Digital transformation and AI require investment in infrastructure, regulation and workforce readiness. Policies that support institutional agility through flexible quality frameworks and sustainable financing will be crucial. Governments will also need to reconsider funding and regulatory models to ensure affordability for students while maintaining institutional viability, particularly as demographic shifts and mobility trends change demand. Coordinated international policy approaches on recognition and transnational education could further strengthen collaborations.
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