The economic indicators driving outbound student mobility from Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nepal, and Vietnam

As we move into a new year in international student recruitment, many of us are already deciding upon which target markets to invest more or less in, and which markets might be good ones to add to the mix.

Coming to those decisions is a science and an art, based on objective criteria such as market fundamentals (e.g., GDP, size of the middle class, size of the youth demographic, economic trends) as well as internal signs that a market is becoming more or less promising (e.g., increased/decreased competitor activity, high or low growth rates in various nationalities within the student body, approval rates, etc.)

Today, we’ll look at the objective side of the balance with a summary of economic and demographic trends across four major student sending markets in Asia: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nepal, and Vietnam. Going into 2026, all four countries feature strong demand for study abroad, and many students are widening their consideration set in terms of destinations.

Bangladesh

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its forecast for economic growth in Bangladesh in 2026 to 4.9% (compared with it prediction of 6.4% growth in April 2025). The main reasons are inflation (8.7%–8.8% in 2025/26) and a challenging global trade environment that dampens opportunities for Bangladesh's exports. President Trump’s tariff rate for Bangladeshi garments currently stands at 20%, which may reduce Bangladesh’s export earnings from the US market by 14%.

Fortunately, Bangladesh isn’t overly reliant on export earnings (about 10% of total GDP) compared to neighbours such as Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia (all over 60%). At the same time, Bangladesh’s economy lacks diversification, making it vulnerable to external shocks. There is high demand for study and work abroad, as remittances are a major component of Bangladesh’s GDP and fuel domestic consumption.

• GDP growth projection: 4.9% for 2026 (IMF)
• Proportion of population in the middle class: 33%.
• Youth population: 49% of the country’s population of 172 million is under the age of 24.
• Currency performance: As of November 2025, the taka is trading at 121–122 per US dollar and has fallen by 30% in less than three years.
• Youth unemployment: 11.5% of those aged 15–24 are out of work, rising to 13.5% of those with tertiary education.
• Outbound mobility trends: 2022 OECD data count 52,800 Bangladeshi students abroad. Top destinations are the US, UK, Canada, Malaysia, Germany, and Australia.
• Key quote: “While the UK and the US remain favourites, an increasing number of students are turning to regional options like Malaysia, China, and even Japan, which offer affordable education and government-funded scholarships.”—Ujjol Mia, CEO, Aspire Global Pathways.

Indonesia

Indonesia’s economy has been softening in the past year but not to an alarming degree. The rate of inflation has come down, but this stimulus for consumer spending is offset by high borrowing costs. Indonesia boasts the world’s fourth largest population (286 million) and 41% of it is made up of youth aged 24 and under – a major reason it is such a compelling student source market.

Youth unemployment is a major issue, so focusing on career outcomes and post-study work opportunities will resonate in this market.

• GDP growth projection: 4.7–4.9% for 2025, with a gradual increase to 5.2% by 2026 (World Bank).
• Proportion of population in the middle class: 17%.
• Youth population: 41% under the age of 24.
• Currency performance: As of November 2025, the rupiah is trading around 16,700 per US dollar, marking a depreciation of about 7.2% over the last 12 months.
• Youth unemployment: 16% of those aged 15–24 are out of work (more than twice the proportion in Thailand and Vietnam), and a high proportion of the overall population resort to informal work (56%).
• Outbound trends: There are over 62,800 Indonesian students abroad for tertiary education (as per 2022 OECD data) – up 29% over 2017. Top destinations are Australia, Malaysia, the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany.
• Key quote: “Graduates of secondary and tertiary education do not always match the needs of the labour market, and there is also a high proportion of informality. Indonesia has a very large number of young people, so the pressure on the labour market is much higher. We also have rapidly increasing levels of secondary and higher education. Many young college graduates avoid informal or low-paid jobs, so they choose to wait for suitable jobs, which leads to unemployment. There is a lack of effective vocational training and apprenticeship programmes compared with neighbours such as Vietnam or Malaysia. In Malaysia, for example, there are more industry-university linkage schemes and graduate employability programmes.”—Deniey Adi Purwanto, a lecturer at the Department of Economics at IPB University in Bogor, as quoted in Al Jazeera.

Nepal

There is considerable debate about prospects for Nepal’s economy in 2026. For example, the IMF expects GDP to grow by 5.2% in 2026 if political tensions ease and tourism revenue and agricultural output are robust. But the World Bank has revised its 2026 forecast to only 2.1% for reasons including civil unrest, loss of investor confidence, a drop in tourism, and poor harvests.

The wildly different forecasts underline the extreme vulnerability of Nepal to climate change and to the vicissitudes of tourism trends. If the weather is good, agriculture drives economic growth – if it not, it can result in devastating losses for the many Nepalese who work in this sector. The same is true for tourism.

A mass youth uprising in September ousted the government and left 72 people dead and more than a thousand injured across the country. Youth are fed up with corruption and economic mismanagement, and the protests were sparked by social media posts by Nepal’s elite “nepo babies” flaunting purchases of luxury brands as well as a complete social media ban imposed on 4 September 2025 (this ended four days later after more than 20 protesters were killed). Nepal is one of the poorest countries in the world, and one in three households receives remittances.

The ouster of the government has not yet returned the country to complete stability given profound political divisions and continuing frustration among youth about their lack of opportunities for upward economic mobility.

• GDP growth projection: 2.1% (World Bank) to 5.2% (IMF).
• Proportion of population in the middle class: 33%.
• Youth population: 47% below the age of 24.
• Currency performance: As of November 2025, the Nepalese rupee is trading at 141.7–142.3 per US dollar marking a depreciation of about 5% over the last 12 months.
• Youth unemployment: 20.8% in 2024, well above the global average of 15.7%.
• Outbound mobility trends: Over 110,000 Nepalese are abroad for education, going mainly to Australia, Japan, Canada, the US, the UK, and India.
• Key quote: “To save, or even live properly, someone from the family has to go out. It’s almost like an unsaid tradition.” —Tenzin Dolker, a college student in Kathmandu who studies computer science, speaking with the New York Times.

Vietnam

Vietnam is one of Asia's star performers in terms of its economy. Committed to diversification, the government has set a growth target of 10% for 2026, though organisations such as the World Bank and the IMF are more conservative, forecasting anywhere from 6% to 8%.

The Vietnamese government has set its ambitious growth target based on planned investments in infrastructure, the Green Economy, semiconductors, and AI, and it is determined to attract more foreign investment and to expand trade with a widened range of countries. However, a volatile global trade environment and US/China tensions pose risks.

Part of the reason for Vietnam’s economic expansion is its growing middle class, which is boosting domestic consumption. The middle class is forecast to grow to over 50% by 2030 – which will be a remarkable achievement if it happens. In addition, Vietnam is a formidable manufacturing hub, especially in the areas of garments and electronics.

Vietnamese families have always been committed to study abroad if they can afford it, and the fact that so many more families can now afford it makes Vietnam one of the most promising outbound student markets today. About 150,000 Vietnamese students are currently abroad for education.

• GDP growth projection: 6-8% in 2026
• Size of middle class: 26%, up from 13% in 2023.
• Youth population: 39% under the age of 24.
• Currency performance: The dong is currently trading at about 25,300 per US dollar, but it is expected to slide about 5.5% in 2026, according to BMI.
• Youth unemployment: 9% in Q3 2025 – and all-time high. This is still low compared to the global average, however.
• Outbound mobility trends: Nearly 250,000 Vietnamese are studying abroad according to the Vietnamese government, with main destinations being South Korea, Japan, Australia, the US, Taiwan, China and Canada.
• Key quote: “As other large markets like India and Nigeria face more volatility due to shifting policy or affordability concerns, Vietnam offers institutions a high-potential and reliable pathway for diversification and long-term enrolment growth.”—Meti Basiri, CEO of ApplyBoard, speaking with Times Higher Education.

For additional background, please see:

• "Market snapshot: A guide to international student recruitment in Vietnam"
• "Outbound student trends for five key sending markets in Asia"
• "Southeast Asian students increasingly considering study abroad closer to home"