Market intelligence for international student recruitment from ICEF
4th Sep 2025

New analysis forecasts marginal growth for foreign enrolment in Australia through 2030

Short on time? Here are the highlights:
  • Owing in part to softening demand in key sending markets, but also the significant policy disruptions of the last 18 months, the outlook is for more modest growth in Australia’s foreign enrolment through the rest of this decade
  • Australian institutions are encouraged to respond to that low-growth outlook with a renewed emphasis on graduate outcomes, alignment with labour market needs, and efforts to strengthen the institution’s reputation with employers in Australia and abroad

In the five years leading up to the pandemic, Australia's foreign enrolment grew at an average of 10% year over year. Those numbers surged again in the post-COVID recovery, growing by 40% in 2023 alone.

A newly released analysis from QS projects that that growth will moderate over the balance of this decade, with a forecast for 2% annual growth through 2030. This forecast is part of QS's ongoing Global Student Flows initiative, and it reflects in large part the disruption (and continuing impact) arising from the policy and process changes introduced in Australia over the last 18 months.

QS projects that Australia's international enrolment will reach 770,000 by 2030, from a current base of about 680,000. That total includes higher education, English language training (ELICOS), and school enrolments, but does not factor students in vocational training. "The deceleration isn’t unique to Australia," explains QS. "A combination of slower economic growth in major sending countries - particularly China - and tighter policy settings in host countries is dampening momentum across the global education sector. In this context, Australia is expected to see the second-fastest growth among the major Anglophone destinations, behind the UK."

There is, even with the more modest growth outlook for the next several years, a certain cautious optimism in the QS forecast. The things that could intrude on that, and act as further brakes on growth this decade, include a sharper-than-projected slowdown in China, economic instability in key sending markets, and any further tightening of Australia's immigration policies for international students. The latter two factors are particularly relevant for students coming from key markets in Southeast Asia and South Asia, which are expected to drive much of the growth for Australia over the next several years.

QS adds that, "The sector has reached an inflection point - no longer is it defined by rapid expansion, but by how it manages risk, diversification, and policy recalibration."

The way forward

The report sets out three key strategies for Australian institutions going forward.

First, a shift from volume to value. This is essentially a call for Australian institutions to develop distinctive value propositions that provide for a sound competitive position and speak to the priorities of an increasingly selective international student market. To a large extent, those priorities revolve around graduate outcomes, and so communicating those outcomes and demonstrating direct paths between study and careers are critical elements of establishing that value for prospective students.

Second, the report argues for a closer alignment between educational programmes and labour market needs. "Universities need to ensure the skills their graduates leave programmes with are the same as those for which industry is calling out," says QS. "Wide-ranging programme portfolios focusing on labour shortages, curriculum codesigned with industry and work integrated learning will remain vital, and indeed need to be stepped up."

Finally, focus on reputation. Australian universities have been losing ground in terms of reputation among employers, and the report highlights the importance of "preserving and rebuilding reputations, especially among employers in markets where students come from" as critical to driving inbound student mobility in the future.

The report concludes: "With low growth, Australian institutions are going to be forced into a battle for market share, rather than working towards rapid expansion. Understanding this environment is key as universities also face calls for increased efficiency following rising costs, discounting course fees, and a turbulent policy environment."

For additional background, please see:

Most Recent

  • Canada: Study permit numbers are in steep decline in 2025 Read More
  • New analysis argues that UK government is “drastically underestimating” the impact of a proposed 6% levy on international student fees Read More
  • ICEF Podcast: From ‘policy focused’ to ‘student centred’: A new era in international education? Read More

Most Popular

  • Which countries will contribute the most to global student mobility in 2030? Read More
  • Research shows link between study abroad and poverty alleviation  Read More
  • Beyond the Big Four: How demand for study abroad is shifting to destinations in Asia and Europe Read More

Because you found this article interesting

Canada: Study permit numbers are in steep decline in 2025 In 2024, the first year under Canada’s current cap on new international student enrolments, the total number of...
Read more
New analysis argues that UK government is “drastically underestimating” the impact of a proposed 6% levy on international student fees A new analysis from policy think tank Public First attests that a policy proposal from the UK Home...
Read more
US administration’s new H-1B policies create uncertainty around post-study work rights The H-1B programme is a key policy mechanism for international students in the United States. Aside from the...
Read more
China leverages higher education capacity with expanded TNE partnerships As with most statistics about China, the latest higher education figures are a little dizzying. Enrolment in the...
Read more
France reports more than 443,000 international students in higher education for 2024/25 The latest data release from Campus France reports a record-high foreign enrolment in the country. There were 443,500...
Read more
Foreign enrolment in Canadian K-12 held steady in 2024/25 International student enrolment in public school boards in Canada declined marginally this year. The latest data from the...
Read more
Global student satisfaction survey highlights growing attention to career services The 2025 Global Student Satisfaction Awards were announced this week, and they provide some important indicators of student...
Read more
OECD tracks global student flows to developed market-based economies The OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) is an inter-governmental organisation made up of 38 member countries....
Read more
What are you looking for?
Quick Links