Real-time insights on shifting international student interest in the US

ICEF and NAFSA co-hosted a featured webinar on 11 June, and the session showcased some important data reflecting a marked downturn in international student interest in the United States over the last eight weeks. Those findings were further amplified through some up-to-the-minute insights from student counsellors in major sending markets around the world.

The complete webinar is available for viewing below.

IDP's Vice President External Affairs for the USA, Jessica Sandberg, began the data review by differentiating between "mid funnel" students (those that were fairly advanced in their study planning) and "early funnel" students that were in the beginning stages of planning and decision making.

"What we're seeing in students that are mid funnel – these are students that have started down the path, maybe have applied to a university, perhaps have already received an admissions offer – is that there are some substantial concerns but they are generally proceeding," said Ms Sandberg.

"When we look further back [up the enrolment funnel], these are students that may be one, two years or more out [from programme start]. Their impressions of the United States are much more vulnerable. They are just starting their research thinking about which destination will be a good fit. And some of the negative signals coming out of the United States right now are going to do more damage. And this is something that we're going to be contending with for some time to come."

IDP's pulse survey essentially provides a 100-day outlook for student sentiment, and there are some telling findings from the last survey cycle running from 12 May to 22 May. In particular: "87% are worried about changes either in being able to get to the United States with the visa or changes to their opportunities to work during or after their studies." And further: "44% [of survey respondents] indicated that they're seriously considering other destinations in spite of the fact that they're mid-funnel."

As recently as this week, anecdotal reports from IDP counsellors indicate there has been a sharper dip in student interest in studying in the US. "More students are stepping away from their plans and considering other destinations in light of especially the visa appointment pause, the travel ban, and the Harvard decertification," added Ms Sandberg.

Keystone Education Group CEO Fredrik Hogemark is able to draw on similar sources. Keystone maintains a monthly pulse survey with 8,000 respondents, and tracks five million student-searches per month across its websites. Here too the data is clear and it describes a sharp decline in student interest over the last eight weeks in particular. The overall effect, to date, is a -52% decline in student interest between May 2024 and May 2025.

"What we are seeing is that students are pivoting towards UK and Europe in general, and also parts of Asia as well," said Mr Hogemark, who also shared some interesting findings from the pulse survey. For one, 70% of respondents said that the funding cuts in US higher education this year had negatively impacted their view of the US as a study destination (for comparison's sake: "visa revocation" was cited as a factor by 65% of respondents).

"There are long-term concerns about the funding costs and the impact on the quality of education," added Mr Hogemark.

The responses to the Keystone survey also suggest that most students are keeping their plans to study in the United States alive, at least for now. More than a third (35%) said they will defer their US study plans, while another 30% said they no long wish to study in the United States.

Interestingly, Keystone is also tracking a marked increase in online study in US higher education programmes – interest in this option has roughly doubled over the last six months among US-inclined students – and also in transnational education (TNE) options.

In a related comment, Keystone's Chief Marketing Officer, Saba Davenport, added that, “Transnational education is no longer a fringe model – it is rapidly becoming mainstream. We know from our conversations with students that they are actively asking whether institutions have campuses outside the US, in countries like the UK or across Europe. They’re looking for accessibility and quality, and right now, TNE is checking those boxes. Although online learning and transnational programmes provide access to US institutions, most students still aspire to study in the US in person. These programmes can hopefully serve as a stepping stone, enabling students to eventually continue their education on US soil once visa challenges are solved."

Studyportals CEO Edwin van Rest joined the panel to share his latest data, and it too described a significant drop in recent months, with student search volumes for the US down -54% through the first week of June, compared to the first week of January.

Mr van Rest offered a very compelling analysis as well of the major US corporations that are led by foreign graduates in the US. They include some of the most highly valued companies in America, and the link between attracting foreign students to the country and entrepreneurship and innovation was unmistakable.

The view from the counselling desk

Saqr Alkharabsheh is the CEO of The Oval Office for Studies and Research, and operates a network of 11 counselling centres and academies throughout the Middle East. That provides his team with access to a large sample of students throughout the region, and he reports the overall view is that, "The students, they feel unwelcome with the new rules and the [current] administration. They feel uncertain and anxious. They feel, you know, like unsafe…I think the damage was really, really big and it will take a long time to heal."

"I think for the last two or three weeks it's been dramatically negative in social media among parents," agreed Hanks Han, the senior director of global development for Bright Can-Achieve, an education agency based in China. "When the US said we are going to pause the international student visa slots, [the students] immediately shifted into other countries. Because a lot of Chinese students actually applied to multiple countries. So they have multiple offers on hand."

Building on resilience

NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw sounded a powerful note of determination and focus: "Do not underestimate the resiliency of this sector, but more than that, do not underestimate the entrepreneurial spirit of the American people. That trademark has not left and it will not leave for a long time to come."

"I fully agree there has been tremendous damage done. There's no need to sugarcoat that," she added. "I feel for the students who are feeling unwelcome. I feel for the students with a level of uncertainty. It is real for them and it is real for their families. And what all of us can do is to continue. We cannot over communicate. I don't believe there is such a thing as over communication. And you have heard from our colleagues [today] about the critical importance of universities being very deliberate in their communications and in their outreach. You cannot do enough of it."

For additional background, please see:

• "What are the latest developments for international students in the United States?"