Market intelligence for international student recruitment from ICEF
3rd Mar 2021

New analysis projects Brexit’s impact on EU enrolment in British higher education

Short on time? Here are the highlights:
  • An analysis commissioned by the British government shows that new rules taking effect post-Brexit may result in 57% fewer EU commencements in UK higher education institutions
  • A revenue loss of £62.5 million (US$85.9 million) per year is forecast for the sector, with only Oxford and Cambridge expected to increase revenue as a result of the new rules

As a result of the UK’s departure from the European Union, EU/EEA and Swiss students coming to the UK for higher education will – beginning this September – lose their “home fee status” that has until now allowed them to pay the same tuition fees as UK students. They will also lose access to British student loans and face the same limitations on their right to work after graduating as other international students, along with other restrictions.

According to an analysis prepared for the UK Department of Education by London Economics, the new rules may result in UK universities losing £62.5 million (USD $85.9 million) per year in tuition fees – as a result of losing more than half (57%) of their first-year EU students.

This academic year (2020/21) was the final year that EU students could enrol in UK education institutions on the same fee and financial support terms as UK students. Since the 2016 Brexit referendum and the uncertainty that followed, UK universities have gradually been losing revenue from EU students.

Higher tuition fees cannot offset lost revenue

The analysis concluded that the increased tuition revenue that UK universities will gain from incoming EU students going forward is not expected to offset the lost revenue associated with fewer students coming in. Currently, one in every three international students in UK higher education is from the EU.

A Study.eu survey last year found that the top alternative destinations for EU students who decide that the UK is too expensive as a result of Brexit changes are the Netherlands (49%), Germany (36%), France (19%), Ireland (16%), and Sweden (14%).

Top tier institutions less affected

Not all universities will face losses as a result of Brexit, however. Oxford and Cambridge are actually projected to gain £3.5 million (US$4.8 million) a year because demand for these universities is not likely to decrease. A cluster analysis determined that it is the universities outside of the top tier that will feel the pinch – and the forecast here is that they will lose £0.6 million a year ($0.8 million) on average. Some of these universities are already under significant financial pressure as a result of the pandemic.

Non-EU student population is growing

In anticipation of Brexit, UK universities have been increasing their recruitment efforts in non-EU markets. In 2018/19, the record number of international student enrolments in the UK was entirely due to growth from those markets; the number of first-year students from EU countries fell by 2% while the number from non-EU countries rose by 23%.

In an early 2021 data release, the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) reported a 40% drop in the number of EU applications to UK universities for the September 2021 intake, with 26,010 fewer EU students applying. The number of non-EU applications, meanwhile, is up by 17%.

UK university stakeholders say there need to be new strategies to prevent the worst-case projections for the effects of Brexit on EU enrolments. Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute, has warned that a massive drop the number of EU students could mean that “[UK] universities will be less diverse and less open to influences from other countries” and said there is an urgent need to “make it abundantly clear to people from the EU and beyond that our universities remain open to all.”

For additional background, please see:

Most Recent

  • The surging demand for skills training in a rapidly changing global economy Read More
  • US issues corrected student visa data showing growth for 2024 while current trends point to an enrolment decline for 2025/26 Read More
  • Survey finds US institutions expanding agency engagement and focusing on new student markets Read More

Most Popular

  • Which countries will contribute the most to global student mobility in 2030? Read More
  • Research shows link between study abroad and poverty alleviation  Read More
  • Beyond the Big Four: How demand for study abroad is shifting to destinations in Asia and Europe Read More

Because you found this article interesting

The surging demand for skills training in a rapidly changing global economy With more than 175 million users, Coursera is the largest online learning platform in the world. It currently...
Read more
US issues corrected student visa data showing growth for 2024 while current trends point to an enrolment decline for 2025/26 In April 2025, we reported that foreign enrolments in the US had declined by -11% between March 2024...
Read more
Survey finds US institutions expanding agency engagement and focusing on new student markets AIRC (The Association of International Enrollment Management) and BONARD have just released a second edition of the State...
Read more
Canada’s language sector buffeted by policy changes in 2024 Amid reports of mounting job losses and programme cuts across Canadian education, the country’s language education providers are...
Read more
Canada: List of non-degree college programmes linked to post-study work rights has changed The Canadian government is continuing its policy of linking eligibility for a post-study work permit (PGWP) – at...
Read more
US administration revives proposal to limit terms of student visas The Trump administration has given notice of a proposed rule change that seeks to limit the term for...
Read more
How have changes in policy settings impacted international student recruitment at Australian universities? Over the past couple of years, Australian universities have been operating within a policy framework that makes it...
Read more
New analysis sounds a note of caution for UK immigration reforms Within the UK’s higher education system, there are a group of institutions known as “Post-1992 universities”. The term...
Read more
What are you looking for?
Quick Links