Changing landscape for student recruitment in India calls for new strategies

India is arguably the most important student source market, in terms of volume and demand, for universities that are heavily invested in maintaining or building international student enrolments. Despite the fact that -5.5% fewer Indians studied abroad in 2025, there are still 1.2 million Indians enrolled in foreign universities right now. The question is: where are they in the world? And also: Why are they there?

The answer used to be pretty simple: the Big Four. Just a couple of years ago, Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US welcomed more than 70% of all Indian students abroad, offering a range of quality study opportunities, post-study work rights, and the possibility of immigration.

But a combination of factors is changing (1) the shape of Indian student mobility, (2) the drivers of that mobility, and (3) the profile of Indian students most likely to consider study abroad.

Weakening demand for Big Four destinations

Readers of ICEF Monitor are well aware of policies that are making it more difficult for students from the Global South to study in Australia, Canada, the UK, and US. In brief, these include reduced incentives for immigration, changes to work rights, high visa rejection rates, steeper visa application fees and/or other costs of study, and high costs of living. Some of the following statistics indicate the effect of policies that discourage Indian students from applying to Big Four countries at this time:

• High visa rejection rates: 61% in the US (2025), 62% in Canada (Q1 2026), and 60% in Australia (February 2026);
• Declining visa applications: for example, in Canada, Indian study permit applications fell from 35% of the total in 2023 to 17% in 2025;
• Fewer new students: for example, commencements fell by -33% in the UK between 2022/23 and 2024/25, -5.5% in Australia in 2025 versus 2024, and -44% in the US for F-1 visas in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.

Other destinations gaining share

Indian students are diverting their interest to alternative destinations. From 2024 to 2025, Indian enrolments rose by:

• +21% in Russia;
• +20% in Germany;
• +20% in Ireland;
• +18% in New Zealand;
• +17% in France;
• +5% in Italy.

New drivers of Indian outbound mobility

India’s affluent and middle classes are growing rapidly. Goldman Sachs estimates that the “affluent” cohort nearly tripled from 24 million people in 2015 to about 60 million in 2023, and the firm predicts that this cohort will reach 100 million by 2027.

As for the middle class, Oxford Economics notes:

“India’s middle class is the second largest [after China] in emerging markets at just over 27 million households, but it's roughly the same size as Brazil's, which has a population seven times smaller. By 2029, India's middle class will more than double in size to reach 62 million households.”

The size and growth of a country’s middle class is important to all global product and service companies because it indicates robust and burgeoning purchasing power. Middle-class consumers are able to go beyond satisfying basic needs (e.g., food and shelter) to seeking quality and prestigious brands. They are thus more likely to be interested in – and able to pay for – programmes at foreign universities that result in well-regarded and internationally recognised degrees.

The following chart shows the rapid forecasted rise of the middle class in India (as you can see, the Philippines, Vietnam, Egypt, and Thailand are also notable in this regard).

What’s the catch?

If we move beyond middle-class statistical indicators, the picture becomes more complex. As marketing intelligence firm Kantar notes of India’s middle class:

“Simply put, prudence in everything so as to feel safe, secure and comfortable. Always aspirational but rarely overambitious. This cohort is perhaps becoming more inscrutable and not as easy to please as they perhaps have been in the past.”

India’s middle-class households may be moving from “need” to “want” in their purchasing mindset, but that doesn’t mean that “want” always translates to “buy.” Indian fintech company SalarySe estimates that India’s “middle-class salaried household” spending is spread across three categories:

• “39% goes to obligatory expenses – things like loan [payments], insurance premiums, and rent. These are the non-negotiables that hit before anything else.
• 32% goes to necessities – groceries, utilities, fuel, medical expenses, school fees. Things you need but have some control over.
• 29% goes to discretionary spending – dining out, entertainment, subscriptions, clothing, travel, and everything else.”

SalarySe explains:

“That 29% discretionary figure sounds generous until you remember it's the last call on a budget that's already been carved up by rent, [loan payments], school fees, and petrol. In practice, it's where the most emotional spending happens, and where the most guilt tends to follow.”

As a result, India’s middle-class families are necessarily cautious, careful, and looking for value for money. Where the affluent class is able to make decisions based on rankings and other markers of prestige, the middle class is more interested in institutions in destinations with welcoming policies, lower tuition and living costs, and strong post-graduate outcomes. It may take more time and resources to convince families in this cohort that a university is worth their money.

This is especially true given that the number of quality higher education institutions in India is rising. India stands out as the country that sent more universities (eight) into the 2026 World University Rankings for the first time than any other country – and that is in a field of 106 countries. Over a span of 12 years, India’s higher education system has risen more quickly in the rankings than any other G20 country.

India is also notable for its interest in partnerships with foreign universities and transnational education arrangements such as branch campuses and joint programmes. The Indian government has official strategies aimed at reducing brain drain, and it is at least as interested in partnering with foreign universities and attracting international students as it is in sending students abroad.

What does it all mean?

India’s middle class is expanding the most significantly outside of major metropolises such as Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad, as people move to smaller cities to escape high costs of living. More families are now able to consider study abroad in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities and rural areas than in the past.

Because characteristics of the middle class will vary across cities and regions, working with vetted, proven education agents and forming relationships with top Indian universities and schools is more crucial today than ever. Ensuring that agents are reputable – with strong track records and demonstrated ethics – is key, especially for institutions in Big Four destinations where visa rejection rates are high.

Just as important is developing proof points on the institutional website, through alumni and student ambassadors, and in all communications that enrolling with your university delivers amazing value for money. This means collecting data on post study outcomes; being completely transparent with costs; and offering distinguishing features such as applications assistance, comprehensive support services, internships, and institution-employer connections.

Quite simply, Indian families have been spooked by policy developments in the Big Four. They will need more reassurance, proof, and support from institutions and agents alike. They have more options – as enrolment data in alternative destinations clearly shows. As a result, India represents a more discerning – while still very promising – source of international students.

For additional background, please see:

• “What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?”
• “The number of Indian students abroad fell in 2025”
• “How post-study work rights can make or break the return on investment for study abroad”